Oct
20
2008
0

“Clean Coal”

Salon’s Pablo Paster on the meaning of “clean coal” technology:

So does the solution really lie in “clean coal technology,” as both presidential campaigns keep saying? As nice as it sounds, clean coal is an oxymoron of epic proportions, promoted by the coal industry, a sort of Orwellian doublespeak meant to introduce the notion that coal can be environmentally friendly.

If we apply the word “clean” to mean a decrease in the amount of criteria air pollutants, or emissions that result in locally unhealthy air quality, then, yes, clean coal is possible. This is achieved with the use of chemical processes, steam reformation and scrubbers to reduce the amount of sulfur dioxide, mercury and particulate emissions from the smokestack. What clean coal does not do is remove any carbon dioxide, the primary culprit behind climate change, from the emissions. This can be achieved only with carbon capture and sequestration technology, in which the greenhouse gas is piped into depleted natural gas fields and locked away indefinitely. Unfortunately this technology increases the cost per unit of coal-based electricity to erase its advantage over wind power, even with subsidies. So if you want clean air and a stable global climate, don’t fall into the clean coal technology trap.

Written by Elliott in: Uncategorized |
Oct
20
2008
0

“Regular rates of popular culture change reflect random copying”

A fascinating and beautifully counterintuitive study of cultural evolution:

Almost by definition, “popular culture” reflects the effects of most people imitating those around them. At the same time, trends and fashions are constantly changing, with future outcomes potentially irrational and nearly impossible to predict. A simple null model, which captures these seemingly conflicting tendencies of conformity and change, involves the random copying of cultural variants between individuals, with occasional innovation. Here, we show that the random-copying model predicts a continual flux of initially obscure new ideas (analogous to mutations) becoming highly popular by chance alone, such that the turnover rate on a list of most popular variants depends on the list size and the amount of innovation but not on population size. We also present evidence for remarkably regular turnover on “pop charts”—including the most popular music, first names, and dog breeds in 20th-century United States—which fits this expectation. By predicting parametric effects on the turnover of popular fashion, the random-copying model provides an additional means of characterizing collective copying behavior in culture evolution.

Written by Elliott in: Uncategorized |
Oct
20
2008
0

Experimental Economics Excerpt

From Hagen and Hammerstein (2005):

7. Five interesting facts about experimental economics games

We will now sketch a framework for interpreting experimental economics games results based on the following five facts. These facts highlight the important distinction between the explicit and implicit features of experimental games. By ‘explicit’ we mean the oral and written instructions to the players about the game, including any assurances of anonymity. By ‘implicit’ we mean all other information that might potentially influence play.

7.1. Explicit features

First, and most importantly, explicit features of games, such as opportunities for reputation building and punishment, can dramatically influence game play in ways predicted by rational choice theory (e.g., Fehr and Gächter, 2000). This is strong evidence that the structure of the games is not completely opaque to the players.

7.2. Implicit features

Second, relatively subtle cues that are independent of the formal structure of an experimental game can nonetheless have a significant impact on players’ contributions. Kurzban (2001), for example, found that in a public goods game, brief, oblique eye contact or light taps on a shoulder or arm before each round significantly increased contributions by males (but not females), sometimes by more than 70%. He speculates that in ancestral environments these behaviors might have served as psychophysical cues of cooperation that would have been particularly important for men in hunting and warfare. In another example of the importance of implicit features, Haley and Fessler (2005) found that in a dictator game played on computer workstations, players using workstations with stylized eye-spots as part of the desktop background image were 55% more generous than players using workstations whose desktop background image did not contain eyespots. Haley and Fessler conjecture that eyespots enhanced players’ (perhaps unconscious) perception that their decisions would have reputational consequences. These examples raise the possibility that players in experimental economics games are using a wide variety of implicit cues that are not controlled by the experimenter to determine the extent to which they should cooperate in the game. If so, some of the altruism found in anonymous, one-shot games could be caused by such cues.

7.3. The importance of culture

Third, there is increasing evidence that culture plays an important role in the explanation of game results. The most intriguing finding from cross-cultural studies is that game play in many societies seems to reflect local social and economic institutions (Henrich et al., 2005). In the New Guinean societies of Au and Gnau, for example, accepting a gift creates a strong obligation to reciprocate, often in ways that the receiver finds onerous. If the receiver fails to reciprocate, he finds himself in a subordinate social position. Large gifts are consequently often refused. Perhaps not coincidentally, in these societies and unlike many other societies, large, ‘hyperfair’ offers exceeding 50% were frequently rejected in the ultimatum game (Tracer, 2003). This again illustrates that players draw upon information that is not specified by the formal structure of the game or the experimenter’s instructions.

7.4. Emotions

Fourth, rightly or wrongly, emotions (‘hot’ cognition) are often seen as fundamentally different from the rationality assumed to underly economic decision-making (‘cold’ cognition). Yet hot cognition plays a central role in the decisions of players in economics games, especially when it comes to punishing free-riders. In a public goods game with a punishment option, for example, the pattern of emotional responses to free riding was consistent with the hypothesis that strong negative emotions trigger the willingness to punish (Fehr and Gächter, 2000 and Fehr and Gächter, 2002).

7.5. Variation in game play

Finally, we are struck by the substantial individual variation in game play even within cultures. Across a number of different Western societies, there are large fractions of both free-riding and strongly reciprocating players (Fehr et al., 2002). Fischbacher et al. (2001), for example, found that in a public goods game in Switzerland, about 50% of players could be classified as conditionally cooperative with a self-serving bias; about 30% as purely selfish; and about 14% as conditionally cooperative when others contributed smaller amounts, but increasingly selfish when others contributed larger amounts. Kurzban and Houser (2005) similarly found in a public goods game in the US that 63% of players could be classified as reciprocators, 20% as free-riders, and 13% as cooperators (i.e., consistently generous).

Written by Elliott in: Uncategorized |
Oct
19
2008
0

Regarding airstrikes in Somalia and Pakistan

The NYT did report on 2 out of 4 of the previously mentioned air strikes (several times in the case of Damadola):

Dobley

Damadola

Neither Chenagai nor Dhusamareb (nor their spelling permutations) have been mentioned in the NYT.

Written by Ryan in: Uncategorized |
Oct
18
2008
0
Oct
18
2008
0
Oct
17
2008
0

McCain-Obama Comedy

My favorite part was when Obama compared the audience he was addressing to avaricious AIG executives.

Written by Elliott in: Uncategorized |
Oct
15
2008
0
Oct
15
2008
0

Tasmanian Devil Threatened by Contagious Cancer

http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/cancer-of-the-devil/index.html

But the cancer that’s killing the Tasmanian devils is different. The cancer cells themselves are infectious.

Here’s what happens. The cancer causes a tumor on the animal’s face. If an infected animal bites another — which happens often, as devils are aggressive creatures, especially during the mating season — some of the tumor cells get transferred. These then start growing on the other animal. It’s as though you kissed someone with throat cancer, and got their cancer yourself.

Written by Elliott in: Uncategorized |
Oct
14
2008
0

Matt Taibbi on Karl Rove

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23482821/the_return_of_rove/print

Rove is not a genius, or even very clever: He’s totally and completely immoral. It doesn’t take genius to claim, as Rove ludicrously did last fall, that it was the Democrats in Congress and not George W. Bush who pushed the Iraq War resolution in 2002. It doesn’t take brains to compare a triple-amputee war veteran to Osama bin Laden; you just have to be a mean, rotten cocksucker.

The reason Rove continues to survive is the same reason that Johnnie Cochran was called a genius for keeping a double-murderer on the golf course — because this generation of Americans has become so steeped in greed and social Darwinism that it can no longer distinguish between cheating and achieving, between enterprise and crime, and can’t bring itself to criticize winners any more than it knows how to be nice to losers. He survives because an increasing number of Americans secretly agree with Rove’s vision of rules, laws and “the truth” as quaint, faintly embarrassing rituals that only a sucker would let hold him back.

Written by Elliott in: Uncategorized |

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